Somebody says the truth of SCM is quantitative analysis, it is true, In addition to collaboration, data processing and consequent decision-making is the most important part for SCM employees in their daily work, so data processing is the basic skills for them, no matter for the beginners or senior managers, customer management or supplier management, demand planning, production scheduling, inventory management, logistics network optimization. SCM professionals dealing a large amount of data processing. Only based on the accurate and right data, management measurement can be taken correctly and effectively, the decisions can be made correctly. Currently, for data processing and analysis, inevitably EXCEL must be used and exerted, good EXCEL skills can help us solve most of our daily business data processing and analysis, even more, highly improve our working efficiency, strong EXCEL skills can also help us to analyze the data from different perspectives, review the business in a deep and comprehensive view, get the hidden issues. The training includes demand management, forecasting with EXCEL model such as moving average, exponential smoothing method, forecast comparison, evaluate the risk for the forecast dynamical change, forecast accuracy assessment; actual shipment analysis, on time delivery calculation, on time fulfillment, actual customer synthetical lead time analysis versus standard lead time; all these analysis will help us find the weak areas we must improve. Master production scheduling evaluation table and capacity assessment, material and inventory analysis, and so on.
09:00-09:05 Opening
I. The Essential of Supply Chain Management
——The challenges of SCM and Demand Forecasting.
——Why Demand Management is important to SCM?
——The elements and patterns of Demand Management
——The importance of Demand Planner
II. Forecasting Technology
——Forecasting Preparation
——Data Cleansing
——Forecast Accuracy Assessment
——Data pattern of time series
——The classifications of Forecast
——Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting
——Qualitative Forecasting
▪ Moving Averages
▪ Exponential Smoothing: Simple, Trend, Trend & Seasonal
▪ How to Calculate Seasonal Index
▪ Decomposition
▪ Linear Programming
—— Advanced Forecast Models: ARIMA &SARIM
—— Application for Forecasting Modeling
—— Application and Case study for Forecasting Technology
—— Apps – Minitab, SPSS
—— Forecasting for promotion
—— Forecasting for New Production Introduction
10:45-11:00 Coffee break
III.The introduction of AI forecasting models
——LLM and AI Forecasting Models
——The differences for AI and Regular Models
——How the AI Forecasting Models work for the Organization?
Ⅳ. B2B Forecasting Method and Demand Sensing
——B2B Forecasting Method
——Demand Sensing
——What to do when Forecasting Models don’t works?
Ⅴ. S&OP and Demand Plan
——S&OP process and key factors
——DP role in S&OP process
——The input and output of each step in S&OP process
▪ New Product Forecast and Demand Plan
▪ Demand Forecasting for Demand Plan in S&OP
▪ Supply Plan Evaluation
——The key elements to success for S&OP process
Ⅵ. Material Analysis
——MRP and Procurement Strategy
——ABC-XYZ analysis
——Safety Stock Strategy and Models
——The development of EOQs models and some useful models
——Practice and Exercise: EXCEL skills for ABC-XYZ analysis and Safety Strategy
10:45-11:00 Coffee break
本课程主要分享从分析需求管理与需求计划流程入手,介绍预测技术,及预测准确率分析、评估方法和标准,等。旨在帮助相关供应链专业人员的提高预测和需求管理的业务水平。还包括安全分析和课堂练习,以让学员充分掌握预测的相关知识和技能。
I. 供应链管理基础:需求管理
——新形势下企业面临的供应链挑战与需求预测的难点
——供应链为什么要管理需求及需求管理的重要性
——需求管理的要素与模式
——需求计划职能的重要性
II. 预测技术
——预测的准备
——数据清洗
——如何评估预测准确率
——认识预测的数据形态及评判
——预测的分类
——定性预测与定量预测
——定量预测模型
▪ 移动平均
▪ 指数平滑:简单,趋势,季节与趋势
▪ 季节指数的算法
▪ 经典分解法
▪ 线性回归
——ARIMA及SARIMA模型:高级复杂预测应
——预测技术与模型的实际应用及操作演练
——预测技术应用案例分析
——预测技术工具应用
——促销预测管理
——新品预测管理
III. AI预测模型介绍(通过AI学习获得的深度学习结果)
——AI预测模型简介以及应用场景
——AI预测模型与常规的预测模型的不同点
——企业能否使用AI预测模型
Ⅳ. B2B预测方法与需求感知(通过AI学习获得的深度学习结果)
——B2B行业的预测方法:
——针对需求不稳定,定制化需求的2B行业预测或者需求感知技术应用
——客户订单或者预测无法使用模型该如何破局?
Ⅴ. 产销协同与需求计划
——产销协同流程及关键要素
——产销协同预测会议的职责划
——产销协同各个环节的重要输入与输出
a. 产品计划与新品导入
b. 需求计划的编制与录
c. 供应计划的评估
——产销协同成功的关键要素
Ⅵ. 物料计划分析评估
——物料需求计划与采购策略
——物料结构分析ABC-XYZ法
——安全库存策略与模型
——EOQ模型的历史发展变革与一些可用模型(通过AI学习获得的深度学习结果)
——课程练习:利用EXCEL进行ABC-XYZ分析,及统计安全库存计算和分析
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